KFF: Trends & predictions in 2020 hospital admissions

Overall health center admissions dropped to 68.6 percent of forecasted admissions throughout a week in April, according to an analysis released Oct. 19 by the Kaiser Family Foundation..

The analysis is based on electronic medical record information from Verona, Wis.-based Epic Health Research Network and consists of all inpatient healthcare facility admission volume from Dec. 31, 2017, to Aug. 8, 2020. Data are pooled from 27 U.S. healthcare companies, representing 162 medical facilities across 21 states. Anticipated volume was determined using historical data from Dec. 31, 2017 to Jan. 25, 2020..

Gabrielle Masson –
Tuesday, October 20th, 2020
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5 essential study findings:.

1. Total health center admissions dropped to 68.6 percent of forecasted admissions during the week of April 11, later rising to a high of 94.3 percent of anticipated levels by the week of July 11. As of Aug. 8, admission volume dipped slightly to 90.8 percent of anticipated levels.

2. Overall, decreases in healthcare facility admissions between March 8 and Aug. 8 represent 6.9 percent of overall expected admissions for 2020.

3. Clients ages 65 and older had about half as numerous non-COVID-19 admissions in late March and April as what was predicted, supporting at about 80 percent to 85 percent in late July and early August..

Health centers in the Northeast experienced the steepest drop in non-COVID-19 admissions, with those admissions reducing to about half of anticipated admissions the week of April 11, rising to 87 percent of forecasted levels in early August. In the South, there has been less of a rebound in non-COVID-19 admissions, sitting at about 82 percent of forecasted levels in early August.

5. If the number of admissions stays at about 90 percent of forecasted admissions, as they were Aug. 8, through completion of the year, total admissions will be 10.5 percent listed below forecasted volume for 2020. If admissions stay at or above 90 percent of predicted admissions, hospital earnings may stabilize at a rather sustainable level, KFF anticipates..

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Hospitals in the Northeast experienced the steepest drop in non-COVID-19 admissions, with those admissions reducing to about half of forecasted admissions the week of April 11, rising to 87 percent of predicted levels in early August. In the South, there has been less of a rebound in non-COVID-19 admissions, sitting at about 82 percent of forecasted levels in early August. If the number of admissions stays at about 90 percent of forecasted admissions, as they were Aug. 8, through the end of the year, total admissions will be 10.5 percent below forecasted volume for 2020.

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Overall hospital admissions dropped to 68.6 percent of forecasted admissions throughout the week of April 11, later on increasing to a high of 94.3 percent of forecasted levels by the week of July 11. As of Aug. 8, admission volume dipped slightly to 90.8 percent of forecasted levels.