UT Austin’s COVID-19 death rate projections skewed by erroneous data point

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The universitys design uses mobile phone information and death tolls to project future deaths, according to the report. A predictive design from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington shows Texas COVID-19 cumulative deaths reaching 11,771 through completion of the month, much lower than the University of Texas at Austins model.

The University of Texas at Austin found an incorrect information point that skewed its designs projections that between 20,655 and 26,726 Texas would pass away of COVID-19 through completion of the month, according to a San Antonio Express-News report.

On July 27, the state altered its reporting technique to counting all individuals with COVID-19 as the cause of death on their death certificates, which caused a one-time spike in the information. The universitys forecasts did not represent the modification, and death information does not show a downturn in the transmission that happened after the state enacted more stringent policies to stem the spread of COVID-19.

That number of COVID-19 deaths will likely be lower, according to the report; there were 8,459 cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Texas since Aug. 9. A university representative said the group recognized an erroneous information point for July 27 deaths that affected its forecasts.

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