Analysis Of US Crude Production

According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. petroleum stocks (leaving out SPR) constructed by 8.8 million barrels recently to 1.461 billion, whereas SPR stocks were the same. Overall stocks stand 171 mmb above the increasing, rolling 5-year average and about 157 mmb higher than a year back. Comparing overall inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 402 mmb above that average.

Crude Production

Production balanced 11.1 mmbd last week, up 100,000 b/d from the previous week, and 11.025 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 7.7 % v. a year back. In the year-to-date, unrefined production balanced 12.129 mmbd, up 0.4 % v. last year, about 50,000 barrels per day higher than a year ago.

Other Supply

Unrefined production plus other supplies balanced 17.983 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, well below the all-time-high record.

The EIA reported that it fell by 30,000 last v. b/d week at 6.789 mmbd. The 4-week pattern in “Other Supply” balanced 6.958 mmbd, off 0.4 % over the very same weeks last year.

Crude Imports

U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 412,000 last week, to average 461,000 b/d. The surge in Saudi exports to the U.S., which started in late March after the rate between the Saudis and Russians, has fallen off. Over the past 4 weeks, Saudi imports have averaged 895,000 b/d, up 72 % from a year earlier.

Total crude imports rose by 373,000 b/d recently to typical 5.941 mmbd recently. This figure was listed below the 4-week pattern of 6.218 mmbd, which in turn was off 13.5 % from a year earlier.

Net oil imports balanced 498,000 b/d over the previous 4 weeks. That compares to net oil imports of 1.701 mmb/d over the same weeks in 2015. This is the 8th 4-week duration this year that imports went beyond exports.

Crude imports from Canada increased by 184,000 b/d recently, averaging 3.354 mmbd. Imports over the past 4 weeks balanced 3.149 mmbd, off 15.2 % v. a year back.

Net crude imports fell by 77,000 b/d because exports rose by 450,000 b/d to typical 2.993 mmbd. Over the past 4 weeks, crude exports averaged 2.754 mmbd, 7.2 % lower than a year back.

Crude Inputs to Refineries

Inputs fell by 103,000 b/d last week recently averaging 14.206 mmbd. Over the previous 4 weeks, unrefined balanced 14.224 mmbd, off 17.6 % v. a year earlier. In the year-to-date, inputs averaged 14.518 mmbd, off 12.5 % v. a year ago.

Unrefined Stocks

Industrial crude stocks 536.6 mmb are now 91.5 million barrels higher than a year earlier.

Over the past 4 weeks, petroleum demand went beyond supply by 61,000 b/d.

Petroleum Products

Total U.S. petroleum item stocks at 925 mmb are 65 million barrels greater than a year back.

Item exports increased by 68,000 b/d last week, balancing 4.900 mmbd. The 4-week pattern of 4.923 mmbd is up 1.2 % from a year earlier. In the year-to-date, exports averaged 5.087 mmbd, up 0.5 % from a year earlier.

Provided the current net product stock builds, product supply has actually gone beyond demand by 523,000 b/d.

Demand

Jet fuel demand is off 47.7 % over the past 4 weeks v. in 2015. In the year-to-date, demand was off 37.6 % v. 2019.

Extract fuel need, that includes diesel fuel and heating oil, rose by 470,000 b/d recently, and balanced 3.428 mmbd over the previous 4 weeks, off 9.8 % the exact same weeks last year. In the YTD, need is off 10.7 % v. a year ago.

Gas need at the main stock level fell by 98,000 b/d last week and balanced 8.631 mmbd over the previous 4 weeks, off 9.5 % v. the exact same weeks last year. In the YTD, it reported that gas demand is off 15.1 % v. a year ago.

Total petroleum demand balanced 17.902 over the past 4 weeks, off 14.6 % v. last year. In the YTD, item need balanced 18.082 mmbd, off 12.2 % v. the same duration in 2019.

Item Stocks

Gasoline stocks are now 14.2 mmb greater than a year ago, ending at 246.7 mmb.

Distillate stocks are 41.1 mmb higher than a year earlier, ending at 177.9 mmb.

Conclusions

The White House has actually confessed that the pandemic might get worse before it improves. Therefore the recovery in oil demand may have stalled. Congress is preparing another stimulus package to try to keep the economy from sinking. So it appears like this is going to be a prolonged affair until proven effective rehabs and/or a vaccine enables work and school to go back to their pre-pandemic levels.

Petroleum stocks led total stocks higher this week, rather of lower, as anticipated. Regardless of a recovery in petroleum and product need, todays stats are evidence that the inventory glut is going to be lengthy and tough to erase.

Examine back to see my next post!

Inputs fell by 103,000 b/d last week last week averaging 14.206 mmbd. Over the previous 4 weeks, unrefined balanced 14.224 mmbd, off 17.6 % v. a year back. Product exports rose by 68,000 b/d last week, balancing 4.900 mmbd.

The 4-week trend in “Other Supply” balanced 6.958 mmbd, off 0.4 % over the exact same weeks last year. Over the past 4 weeks, Saudi imports have balanced 895,000 b/d, up 72 % from a year earlier.

Best, Robert BoslegoINO.com Contributor – Energies

Disclosure: This factor does not own any stocks mentioned in this post. The above is a matter of opinion supplied for general information purposes just and is not intended as investment guidance.