Analysis Of The EIA Statistics

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. petroleum stocks (leaving out SPR) developed by 5.9 million barrels last week to 1.451 billion, whereas SPR stocks built by 1.4 million. Total stocks stand 163 mmb above the increasing, rolling 5-year average and about 151 mmb higher than a year earlier. Comparing total inventories to the pre-glut average (end-2014), stocks are 392 mmb above that average.

Crude Production

Production averaged 11.0 mmbd recently, up 500,000 b/d from the previous week, and 10.950 mmbd over the past 4 weeks, off 10.6 % v. a year back. In the year-to-date, unrefined production averaged 12.311 mmbd, up 1.7 % v. last year, about 200,000 barrels each day greater than a year ago.

Other Supply

The EIA reported that it increased by 68,000 b/d v. last week at 7.075 mmbd. The 4-week trend in “Other Supply” averaged 6.917 mmbd, off 1.3 % over the exact same weeks last year.

Unrefined production plus other products averaged 17.867 mmbd over the previous 4 weeks, well listed below the all-time-high record.

Unrefined Imports

Crude imports from Canada increased by 144,000 b/d recently, averaging 3.229 mmbd. Imports over the past 4 weeks averaged 3.031 mmbd, off 16.1 % v. a year ago.

Overall crude imports fell by 102,000 b/d last week to typical 6.540 mmbd recently. This figure was below the EIA 4-week trend of 6.556 mmbd, which in turn was off 11.6 % from a year ago.

Net crude imports fell by 797,000 b/d, and exports rose by 695,000 b/d to typical 3.157 mmbd. Over the past 4 weeks, unrefined exports averaged 2.713 mmbd, 20.3 % lower than a year ago.

U.S. unrefined imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 25,000 last week to typical 1.381 mmb/d. This showed the rise in Saudi exports to the U.S., which started in late March after the rate was began between the Saudis and Russians. They had supposedly sent an armada of tankers carrying up to 50 million barrels to flood the U.S. market. Over the previous 4 weeks, Saudi imports have balanced 1.472 mmb/d, up 221 % from a year ago.

Net oil imports balanced 1.273 mmb/d over the previous 4 weeks. That compares to net oil imports of 1.143 mmbd over the same weeks last year. This is the 5th 4-week period this year that imports surpassed exports.

Crude Inputs to Refineries

Inputs rose by 239,000 b/d last week recently averaging 13.840 mmbd. Over the past 4 weeks, crude averaged 13.558 mmbd, off 21.0 % v. a year back. In the year-to-date, inputs balanced 14.566 mmbd, off 11.6 % v. a year back.

Unrefined Stocks

Commercial crude stocks 540.7 mmb are now 71.1 million barrels higher than a year earlier.

Over the past 4 weeks, unrefined oil supply surpassed need by 581,000 b/d.

Petroleum Products

Total U.S. petroleum item stocks at 910 mmb are 75 million barrels higher than a year ago.

Product exports increased by 276,000 b/d recently, averaging 4.629 mmbd. The 4-week pattern of 4.436 mmbd is off 13.2 % from a year back. In the year-to-date, exports averaged 5.114 mmbd, up 0.4 % from a year ago.

Offered the current net item stock builds, item supply has actually gone beyond demand by 1.056 mmb/d.

Demand

Total petroleum demand averaged 17.069 over the past 4 weeks, off 17.0 % v. in 2015. In the YTD, product demand averaged 18.112 mmbd, off 11.8 % v. the very same period in 2019.

Jet fuel demand is off 62.5 % over the previous 4 weeks v. in 2015. In the year-to-date, need was off 35.8 % v. 2019.

Gas demand at the main stock level increased by 738,000 b/d last week and balanced 7.982 mmbd over the previous 4 weeks, off 17.5 % v. the very same weeks in 2015. In the YTD, it reported that gas need is off 16.0 % v. a year earlier.

Distillate fuel demand, that includes diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 89,000 b/d last week, and averaged 3.260 mmbd over the previous 4 weeks, off 17.4 % v. the same weeks last year. In the YTD, need is off 10.8 % v. a year ago.

Item Stocks

Extract stocks are 49.3 mmb higher than a year back, ending at 174.7 mmb.

Gas stocks are now 23.1 mmb higher than a year back, ending at 255.3 mmb.

Conclusions

Unrefined and item stock construct rates stay extremely high.Recent reports show that shale oil business may re-start shut-in wells above $30/b. That would be a very negative advancement for oil rates, and this weeks significant rise in unrefined production appeared to support that view.

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Inputs rose by 239,000 b/d last week last week averaging 13.840 mmbd. Over the previous 4 weeks, crude balanced 13.558 mmbd, off 21.0 % v. a year earlier. Product exports increased by 276,000 b/d last week, averaging 4.629 mmbd.

The 4-week pattern in “Other Supply” balanced 6.917 mmbd, off 1.3 % over the exact same weeks last year. Over the past 4 weeks, Saudi imports have actually balanced 1.472 mmb/d, up 221 % from a year ago.

Best, Robert BoslegoINO.com Contributor – Energies

Disclosure: This factor does not own any stocks pointed out in this article. This short article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion offered general information functions only and is not meant as financial investment recommendations. This factor is not receiving payment (besides from INO.com) for their viewpoint.