A broken uptrend in a key government bond yield could be a bad omen for stocks – MarketWatch

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.647%.
just broke listed below a rising pattern line, to suggest the uptrend off the COVID-19 low in early March has ended.

Yields had actually been inching greater accompanying a V-shaped bounce in the stock exchange, which helped move the S&P 500 index.
SPX,.
-2.42%.
as much as 44.5% off its March low to its June 8 recovery high, where it backtracked 87% of the COVID-19 selloff, and rose the Nasdaq Composite.
COMP,.
-2.59%.
to fresh record closing peaks.

That uptrend in rates was substantial for both Main Street and Wall Street. It assisted to support the belief that the worst of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy was over, with information suggesting the labor market was enhancing quickly as all 50 U.S. states phased in steps to resume their economies. See Economic Reports for current economic data.Bond yields increase as prices fall.

Much for the V-shaped recovery.

” Keeping an eye on the [10-year yield] patterns is important today because of the positive directional correlation it has with our broader U.S. equity markets,” Wantrobski composed.

As the variety of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. increased to a new daily record Friday, triggering some states to press pause on reopenings, stocks sold off and the 10-year Treasury captured a flight-to-safety bid, to push the 10-year yield down 3.8 basis points (0.038) percentage points to 0.636%, the lowest close given that May 14. See Bond Report.

Since the start of 2020, the correlation coefficient in between the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield.
TMUBMUSD10Y,.
0.647%.
is 0.67, according to a MarketWatch analysis of FactSet data, where an ideal correlation of 1.00 would indicate they were in lockstep, moving in the very same direction and to the exact same degree.

” The break here suggests that the pattern of higher lows considering that April has been blocked, and we might see lower yields in sessions ahead integrated with a larger retracement in equities that experienced given that the March crash,” Dan Wantrobski, technical analyst at Janney Montgomery Scott, wrote in a note to clients.

Dont miss: Coronavirus upgrade: U.S. sets record for new cases in a single day, as Texas becomes first state to reimpose constraints.

FactSet, MarketWatch.

The yield fell below a trend line rising off the March 9 low close of 0.499%, that also connected the April 21 close of 0.571% and the June 11 close of 0.653%. The uptrend line reached about 0.673% on Friday.

The S&P 500 tumbled 2.4% on Friday to close at 3,009.05. It was still above its June 11 pullback low of 3,002.10, keep in mind that the 10-year yield has actually been leading the S&P 500, not running alongside it. The yields COVID-19 bottom was hit on March 9 while the S&P 500 hit its trough on March 23, and the yields healing peak was reached on June 5, one session ahead of the S&P 500s healing high.

And that bodes ill for stocks.

And while the S&P 500 does not have a pattern line off its March low to use as a guide like the 10-year yield has, it has closed listed below what Wantrobski considered as a short-term support zone in between 3,020 and 3,050. The bottom of that support zone was marked by the 200-day moving average, which numerous think about a dividing line between longer-term uptrends and downtrends. Learn more about the 200-day moving average.

The next essential level to watch would be the June 11 close of 3,002.10, as closing below that would confirm a bearish “double-top” technical reversal pattern, referencing the June 8 and June 23 closing highs.

FactSet, MarketWatch.

The S&P 500 tumbled 2.4% on Friday to close at 3,009.05. It was still above its June 11 pullback low of 3,002.10, keep in mind that the 10-year yield has actually been leading the S&P 500, not running along with it. The yields COVID-19 bottom was hit on March 9 while the S&P 500 hit its trough on March 23, and the yields recovery peak was reached on June 5, one session ahead of the S&P 500s healing high.

And while the S&P 500 does not have a pattern line off its March low to utilize as a guide like the 10-year yield has, it has closed listed below what Wantrobski saw as a short-term support zone in between 3,020 and 3,050.

” Please keep your safety belt attached and your tray tables stowed in their upright position … [theres] likely to be more turbulence ahead in our viewpoint,” Wantrobski composed.

See Economic Reports for current economic data.Bond yields rise as costs fall.

Wantrobski stated that considering that the S&P 500s bearish action has produced some oversold readings on an extremely short-term basis, any new trend likely will not be a smooth one.